Why this shutdown started
The federal government entered a shutdown when funding legislation failed to pass before the new fiscal year. Specifically, on October 1, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT the government’s operating funds lapsed because Congress did not enact the necessary appropriations bills. The Guardian+5Wikipedia+5NCSL+5
At the heart of the impasse are major disagreements between the parties. Republicans are pushing for a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) to reopen government with current funding levels, resisting broader policy concessions. Democrats are insisting that any funding bill must include expanded health‐care subsidies (specifically extensions of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits) and protections for vulnerable programs. Al Jazeera+1
Complicating matters further: The shutdown reflects structural budget stalemates. The failure to pass all twelve annual appropriations bills—so common in recent years—left agencies operating under stop-gap measures and then none when the CR expired. Brookings+1
How long it’s been going on
As of today the shutdown has been under way for 29 days. CBS News+2Reuters+2 It began at the start of the 2026 fiscal year (which began October 1 2025) after the previous funding ran out. Peter Welch’s House Page+1
Because the required Senate votes to advance a funding bill (several held so far) have failed to reach the 60-vote threshold for cloture, the impasse has lingered. CBS News+1
When can we expect it to end?
Predicting exactly when the shutdown will end is difficult given the political dynamics. However, recent reporting offers some clues:
- Some Senators express “cautious optimism” as negotiations have “ticked up significantly.” CBS News
- The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if the shutdown ends within the coming week the economic cost will still be substantial; if it drags on six to eight weeks the damage will grow much larger. Reuters+1
- The key trigger points: looming deadlines for military pay, the expiration of food-assistance benefits (see below) and pressure from states, agencies and workers. AP News+1
Given these factors it is reasonable to hope for a resolution in the near term (weeks rather than months) but the risk remains of a protracted standoff if neither side gives ground.
The significant negative effects of the shutdown
The fallout is already significant and growing. Here are some of the major impacts:
Federal workers and pay
Many federal employees have been furloughed (sent home) or forced to continue working without pay. While some back-pay is legally required once the shutdown ends (for many employees) the immediate cash-flow shock is real. The Washington Post+1
Agencies estimate hundreds of thousands—some estimates around 750,000—are furloughed or working without pay. Reuters+1
Food assistance and the vulnerable
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is under threat: With funding paused or uncertain the USDA issued a warning that benefits might not be issued beginning November 1. ABC News More than 40 million Americans rely on SNAP and now face potentially losing their benefits. AP News
Economic cost and knock-on effects
The shutdown is hurting the economy. The CBO estimates losses between $7 billion and $14 billion depending on duration, and warns this could reduce GDP growth by as much as 1-2 percentage points in Q4 2025. The Guardian+1 Delay in federal spending, pay interruptions, and contracted services all contribute.
Service disruptions
- Some federal agencies have reduced or suspended operations. For example the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health-research services are operating with minimal staffing. Wikipedia
- Travel and air-traffic are under strain because hiring and training of controllers and inspectors are stalled. Wikipedia
- National parks and federal visitor centers are partially closed or minimally staffed. Wikipedia
Political and social consequences
The longer the shutdown lasts the more trust in institutions erodes, morale among federal staff drops, communities relying on federal services suffer, and businesses adjacent to federal operations feel the ripple effects.
Final thoughts
This shutdown stands out not only for its duration but for the stakes involved: the risk to tens of millions of Americans relying on assistance programs, to hundreds of thousands of federal employees, and to the economy at large.
For those watching, the key battle lines remain funding vs. policy riders, continuing resolution vs. comprehensive deal. The trajectory suggests a resolution is likely in the coming weeks—but the window is narrowing and the cost of delay already measurable.